Welcome to another edition of Market Commentary with RFG Advisory’s Chief Investment Officer, Rick Wedell!
Let’s talk numbers:
The S&P 500 started the day at 5,570 following an incredibly volatile few weeks in financial markets around the globe.
10-year Treasury holds steady at 4.25%, nudging down from recent highs.
But the real headline? The job market is starting to cool.
Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% and fewer people are leaving their jobs voluntarily. It’s the first time this cycle we’ve seen unemployment rise above 4%, but it's all part of a broader cooling trend that the market has largely welcomed.
Why? Because signs of a slower economy may open the door for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates (possibly as soon as September).
Still, a few key dynamics remain:
Inflation would potentially need to follow suit. Softer jobs data is promising, but the Fed wants to see inflation steadily decline before making a move.
Too much softness could shift the tone. If economic data slows too quickly, Rick notes that recession concerns could potentially start to re-emerge.
That said, we remain in a relatively balanced spot. While the market is navigating a delicate stretch, current conditions suggest a path forward that’s steady (even if a bit cautious).
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